Are we in a recession right now??

A recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, is defined as “A significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”

They look at several factors, not JUST two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. They look at:

  1. Yes, the GDP thing.

  2. Rising unemployment

  3. Industrial production decline

  4. U.S. Retail Sales decline

  5. Yield curve inverts

  6. Consumer confidence declines

  7. U.S. Wages and Salary Growth

  8. U.S. Employment Rate

  9. Consumer Price Index

    CPI: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available.

  10. U.S. Inflation

  11. U.S. Import Prices

  12. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure

    Core PCE: A price index that measures the cost of goods and services for consumers, but excludes food and energy to get a clearer picture of underlying inflation because their prices can fluctuate significantly due to weather, seasonality, or geopolitical events. 

  13. U.S. Energy Inflation

  14. U.S. Consumer Spending

  15. U.S. Personal Savings

  16. U.S. Household Debt

A lot of things determine a recession. Some people look at the first seven things on this list to get a big picture, others look at more things … and then they make their determination. The President does not make this determination. Joe Biden did not change the definition. The definition in quotes above has been the definition since the 1970s.

Above, you can click on the links and monitor everything yourself as needed, or whenever you’re worried about a possible recession.